Another fantasy football season is in the books and if you have made it past the stages of grief (see below) then like myself you are left asking yourself why. How could I be so unlucky? Was my team really that bad? Their team wasn't really that good was it? Was it a completely random turn of events or is there some kind of consistency to the results that made winners and losers in 2013? As a member of 4 leagues I will attempt to find a pattern, while it will not hardly be enough data to form a purely scientific hypothesis, I will do so anyway because I was never good at science and I like the word "hypothesis."
Before you venture any further into my attempt at fantasy explanation please make sure that you have completed all the stages of Fantasy Football Grief. If not the information may leave you as angry and as confused as a Washington Redskins fan.
Stages of Fantasy Football Grief
1. Rage - "%&#@!^*!
2. Denial - "I deserved to win! I had more season points/wins!
3. Defensive - "How was I supposed to know that Aaron Rodgers would get hurt and Doug Martin would be a bust?"
4. Envy - "_____ got lucky! ______always gets lucky and he had a better draft pick"
5. Depression - " this is nothing but luck. I'm not playing next year."
6. Desperation - "If it wouldn't have snowed on week 14..." "The commissioner of my league sucks!" "I was on vacation" "My phone wouldn't let me change the lineup" "OBAMA!"
7. Return to sanity - "Congrats to ______. It was fun and I'll try again next year."
Top 5 performers at each position (some positions have more than 5 because different leagues have slight variations in scoring)
Quarterback Super Bowl appearance out of 4 leagues
* Manning 3/4
* Brees
* Rivers
* Dalton
* Romo 1/4
* Newton
* Stafford
Running Back
* Charles 3/4
* McCoy 1/4
* Forte 1/4
* Moreno
* Lynch 1/4
Wide Receiver
* A. Brown
* Megatron
* Marshall
* D. Thomas 1/4
* A.J. Green
* Gordon
TE
* Graham
* Davis 1/4
* J. Thomas 1/4
* Cameron
* Witten 1/4
* Gonzalez
All Bust Team 2013 All Sleeper team 2013 All Greatness Team
QB - Aaron Rodgers Phillip Rivers Peyton Manning
RB - Doug Martin Joique Bell Jamaal Charles
RB - Arian Foster Zac Stacey LeSean McCoy
WR - Julio Jones Alshon Jeffrey Josh Gordon
WR - Randall Cobb Keenan Allen Calvin Johnson
TE - Rob Grownikoski Julius Thomas Jimmy Graham
Flex - CJ Spiller Julian Edleman Matt Forte
Interesting notes
* in all 4 leagues only 2 out of 8 people that picked 1-6 in the draft made it to the superbowl, meaning in 2013 a mid to late draft pick was better than an early one.
* 5 of the top 10 Running backs drafted were busts. 3 were in the top 5 drafted.
* Only one QB drafted in the top 10 was a bust (Aaron Rodger/injury) but several underperformed for their position in the draft (Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, RGIII) Waiting for a Romo, Phillip Rivers or Andy Dalton in the later rounds paid off.
* 4 of the top 10 receivers drafted were busts.
* Worst team to draft from was the Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson all performed well under their draft positions; and they were pretty high draft positions. Runner up: Patriots
Conclusion
Manning & Charles Fantasy MVP
There is a saying in Fantasy Football that you can't win your league in the draft, but you can certainly lose it, but that theory may not be true for 2013. Everyone in my leagues that drafted Jamaal Charles drafted somewhere between picks 6-10. 3 out of 4 of those players ended up in the superbowl because they were able to draft the #1 running back and then get a 2nd pick soon after. The way that the ADP (average draft position) worked 2 out of 4 actually ended up with Charles and Manning on the same team. A basically unbeatable combination.
Running Backs still dominate
In a league where quarterbacks and receivers break passing records every year; having one of the few elite running backs is still the key to victory. As you can see by the stats above, more top 5 running backs made the superbowl than top 5 players at any other position. The only other elite QB with a superbowl appearance besides Peyton Manning was Tony Romo and he was drafted very late in the draft....which means whoever had him also had an elite running back. The strategy of drafting multiple running backs early is still a good one. This is easier said than done. Those who chose CJ Spiller, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, and Trent Richardson in the first round failed at this strategy, so its not a for sure thing if you draft a bunch of backs; You still have to guess the right ones, but it is a risk worth taking.
Early 2014 Draft Forecast
Absent some kind of catastrophic injury Jamaal Charles will be the #1 pick followed by LeSean McCoy. Peyton Manning will pass Drew Brees for the top QB. Julious Thomas will rise above every TE not named Jimmy Graham and Alshon Jeffrey & Kennan Allen will be top 10 wide receiver draft picks.
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